Chapter 8: Part 1 – From Prophecy to Prediction

10 minutes

The day after returning from Leiria, amidst the curious and mocking gazes of other students, I finished a task in the courtyard and then headed to the room next to the chief librarian’s office. The space, originally the chief librarian’s office, had been divided in two, with one part becoming a personal laboratory.

Inside, the windows were covered with thick curtains, and the walls were painted black, presumably to block magical influences. The room housed a thick black desk for experiments and shelves lined with unidentifiable bottles. A stone slab similar to the one in the chief librarian’s office was embedded in the wall.

This space, evidently more expensive and larger than the simple chief librarian’s office, showed where the owner’s heart truly lay – between his hobbies and his work. It’s no wonder I, among the top five library users, had never seen this room before.

Aren’t magical tools and their source of energy, magic crystals, almost entirely under state control? Even so, I guess they are a former court magician at the end of the day.

Across the experimental desk stood an old man in a black apron and gloves, transformed from a librarian to a scholar. Beside me stood Mia to my right and Alfina to my left.

“Let’s begin the experiment,” declared Fuglsig, raising his hands like a surgeon about to operate. On the experimental desk lay a black cloth-wrapped elongated object, a tree from the courtyard, and black paper.

It resembled a student’s experiment under the guidance of an old professor. However, we couldn’t participate; my aptitude is almost zero, and Mia’s isn’t much better.

Magic requires a specific aptitude and extensive knowledge of certain magical tools for its use. Alfina specializes in the prophecy crystal, and the knights in their weapons and armor.

“First, let’s start with this ‘tree,’” said Fuglsig, picking up the stick, our negative control, to ensure there’s no reaction to magic in the tree itself. Ideally, we’d use the same type of tree that hasn’t absorbed magic, but that’s impossible.

Fuglsig pressed the stick onto the black paper, removed his glove from his right hand, and extended his index and middle finger. His fingers, resembling dry branches, trembled slightly. On his middle finger was a ring with an amethyst-like small gem, with an intricate, maze-like design.

As Fuglsig mumbled, white light poured from the ring, lighting up its patterns, and patterns appeared on the gem, eventually covering his hand with light, stopping the trembling.

He pressed the sample against the black paper and moved his fingers slowly from right to left, from the center of the stick towards the bark.

When the stick was removed, the black paper had turned uniformly white, as if brushed with white ink. Relieved, I sighed; any strange reaction from the plant itself would have made our measurements significantly more difficult.

“It reacts straightforwardly. Now, let’s create the standard,” said Fuglsig, placing ten small square tiles on the paper. The ring lit up, and squares ranging from almost black to pure white appeared.

Preparations were complete. Next up was the positive control.

“Here is the sample that was specially brought from the East,” announced Fuglsig as he unwrapped the black cloth to reveal a core sample from a redleaf tree. It appeared to have been collected near an observatory in the East, according to Fuglsig’s explanation.

As his finger moved from the right end to the left of the sample, Fuglsig looked at me. I swallowed hard, realizing that if the sample showed no results, it would mean the entire idea of observing magical fluctuations through tree rings was flawed.

Slowly, the sample was lifted, and Fuglsig’s eyes sparkled with realization.

“So this is how it turns out… Fascinating,” he remarked. The paper displayed a wave-like pattern. I exhaled deeply, relieved. The darker sections, or the black parts, indicated a higher amount of chaotic magic or miasma. Brightness and the amount of miasma were inversely proportional, similar to how X-rays work. Although the mechanism by which magic trees record magic remains unknown, it’s clear that there are variations in the density of the rings over the years.

However, the pattern became ambiguous in the older segments of the core, that is to say, the central to middle parts of the tree.

“It seems like it’s difficult to get clear data for older periods. Maybe up to about ten years’ worth…” -Ricardo

“Wait, let me adjust the sensitivity a bit more,” Fuglsig, now fully engaged, tinkered with his ring. A slightly more contrasted pattern appeared next to the previous imaging.

“See, it’s improved. Still, it would be prudent to discard data older than thirty years” –Fuglsig

Impressive indeed. If I recall correctly, this was a tenfold increase in precision compared to the observatory. Direct measurement made it sufficient, even if it would have been a failure with the redleaf tree.

“Alright, let’s quantify this. Mia-kun, please record.” –Fuglsig

Mia took out a ruler and pen, marking the paper according to the stripes on the core. Fuglsig, with a magnifying glass in hand, began to quantify the darkness of each annual ring. Their coordination was perfect… after all, she’s my secretary.

Alfina stood by my side, watching intently with a tense expression.

In the end, twenty-eight years’ worth of data were lined up on paper. Fuglsig pulled out a scroll, comparing the newly obtained figures to it without letting us see. He then tossed the scroll onto the desk.

“Professor, that document has a confidential stamp on it…” Alfina pointed out cautiously, given its likely military secrecy.

“There’s no point in it being confidential now. The same information lies before us,” Fuglsig stated. I compared the values on both sides. Twenty-eight years ago, the observational value was 30, and the tree ring measurement was 14. Twenty-seven years ago had an observational value of 33 and a measurement of 15, twenty-six years ago was 40 to 18. Naturally, the numbers don’t match, so they’re normalized against the average values to see if they correlate. It seems like a more than double correlation could work.

No, considering three years ago was 24 against 12, exactly double, there does seem to be some attenuation over time. However, this level of discrepancy is within acceptable limits.

Without a word, Mia began to normalize the data relative to the average with plus and minus adjustments. Normally, standard deviation and testing should also be considered, but given the small quantity of samples, it wouldn’t be meaningful.

“It’s astonishing that such a method exists. Just what kind of person are you?” –Fuglsig

“I was just lucky. I didn’t expect to obtain such clean data.” -Ricardo

Fuglsig, who had been enjoying his new toy until a moment ago, now looked at me sharply. I answered with a forced smile, thinking how I couldn’t possibly explain it was knowledge from another world. That would be even more suspicious than a prophecy.

“…Over the past twenty-eight years, there has been one medium-scale and four small-scale monster floods in the East. As you can see here, the magical veins become more active five years before a flood, peak three years before, and then decline for two years before the actual flood occurs. The corresponding pattern in the tree rings is here.” –Fuglsig

On the black paper, there was a section where the bands gradually darkened, spanning three divisions.

“Incredible. It’s exactly as you said, Ricardo.” -Alfina

Alfina held my hand tightly. Her beautiful eyes were slightly moistened, showing how innocently she reacts when her emotions are on full display.

“Mhm, hm,” Mia coughed, prompting Alfina to hastily release my hand.

“…The credit goes to the chief librarian for identifying a pattern that can be clearly predicted.” -Ricardo

It seems that as the magical power from the veins increases, so does the number of magical beasts, peaking slightly after the peak of magical power. An increased number of magical beasts likely leads to their flood as a trigger when the magical power starts to decrease.

“Hmph… Now, the values obtained from the tree rings up to four years ago are as follows. There’s no significant fluctuation. Based on today’s experiment alone, we can predict that there will be no monster floods this year, at least in the East. Of course, this is just corroborating the data from the observatory in the East, but…” –Fuglsig

Fuglsig’s gaze was fixed on the package I was holding. Yes, this package contains unknown information, bearing not just academic records of the pattern of magical fluctuations in the West but also potentially more severe implications.

I looked at Alfina, who nodded. I handed the sample we had cut together to Fuglsig.

Now, for the main event. The tense atmosphere enveloped the room as Fuglsig lifted the sample from the older end of the age spectrum, opposite the bark side. White extractions appeared on the paper, slowly extending to our view as if to tease us. But even as we reached the part of the sample where patterns should start to emerge based on the previous samples, the paper remained white.

Finally, the bark was lifted away from the paper. I stared intently, but saw nothing beyond the white.

Was there no fluctuation in the magical veins? Was the disaster foretold by the prophecy not a monster flood? Should we consider a new hypothesis? Or was the prophecy altogether… My mind was in turmoil.

“It’s strange. Having absolutely no fluctuation is also unnatural. Did you guys do it correctly…? Oh no! I forgot to adjust the sensitivity back.” –Fuglsig

“Hey, old ma… please, chief librarian.” -Ricardo

Fuglsig scratched his head and twisted the ring again. His finger moved over the tree rings one more time. The sample was lifted away from the paper. Still, pure white… No, there is a slight shadow.

Within the white lines, near the end, there appears to be a faint haze in just one spot.

“Let me adjust it a bit more.” –Fuglsig

The third time’s the charm. Fuglsig exhaled deeply and placed the stick down. What appeared was the result we both dreaded and anticipated.

Completely white at the center of the trunk, where if you look closely, the middle part has subtle waves.

And just beside the bark, there’s a single black band.

Compared side by side with the East, it’s clear. In the West, the magical power was indeed stable. However, that was only until five years ago. A slight shadow appeared four years ago, and it has become darker over the past three years. Last year, it turned back to white. This year’s data is incomplete, but at least no shadow can be seen.

“We’ll have to recreate the standard with this sensitivity. But it seems unnecessary to quantify it. The signs are showing. Probably this year…” –Fuglsig

“A great disaster, a monster flood, will occur in the West.” -Ricardo

Even without a breeze, the lamp’s light flickered.

In response to our conclusion, the two girls remained silent. One faced the disaster threatening her birthplace; the other was presented with evidence that the terrifying vision she saw was becoming a reality.

From mystical and vague images to numerical predictions.

It was the moment when a prophecy transformed into information.

I created a Facebook page that provides automatic updates for chapters. Right now I’m probably just gonna have it post updates for a couple of series.

Facebook Page: https://www.facebook.com/people/Akatsuki-Translations/61558147626526/


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