Akatsuki Translations

“So, regardless of the climate, there’s a factor that exclusively affects the harvest in the eastern region. And it’s highly likely that this factor is the rampant monster flood.” -Ricardo

I said this to Fuglsig, who was reluctantly looking over Mia’s calculations.

“So, you’re saying that a monster flood, which would normally be suppressed by the knight order if any signs were detected, could actually increase the harvest? …What’s the reason for that?” -Fuglsig

Fuglsig turned back to me with a look of displeasure. Being taken seriously by him was already an improvement.

“Rubel Wald, a territory of magical beasts, and the farmlands on the plains are connected by a forest in between. Changes in the ecosystem of the Rubel Wald should affect the forest’s ecosystem, which in turn should influence the ecosystem of the plains. The most likely possibility involves pests. The damage caused by large rats that emerge from the forest at night and ravage the fields is not to be underestimated. Lower-grade magical creatures also prey on normal animals, especially when their numbers increase and their magical power decreases, i.e., when they’re starving. Magical creatures leaking from the forest into the forest, specifically wargs, might be reducing the number of pests harmful to the fields. That’s what I think. Now, why do you think the west will have a good harvest this year?” -Ricardo

“You’re suggesting that a monster flood will occur in the West… Irritating, but there’s some logic to it. Using a prophecy of disaster to justify a prophecy of good harvest is somewhat fraudulent, isn’t it?” -Fuglsig

I figured he’d catch on.

“Above all, the crucial point is still missing. Unless the magical energy of the magic veins fluctuates, a monster flood won’t occur. Am I wrong?” -Fuglsig

Fuglsig sharply pinpointed a logical weakness. He was right. With just a few pieces of circumstantial evidence, humans easily construct cause and effect. Not just novelists, but humans in general love stories.

But just as pedestrians jaywalking doesn’t cause car accidents on roads without cars, things that have no fundamental cause won’t happen, no matter how plausible they seem.

By the way, statistics are the opposite, based on chance, but that’s not important right now.

“That’s where we encounter a verifiable issue. It’s possible that the magical energy in the magic veins in the West is fluctuating too. By the way, how are predictions of monster floods made in the East?” -Ricardo

“The magic power that springs from the magic veins is chaotic. In contrast, the magic power used by humans with the right tools is orderly. So, we run magic power through a magical tool, and the extent to which it’s disrupted is captured on magic-sensitive paper. We have set standards and turned the data into precise numerical values.” -Fuglsig

The old man puffed out his chest. He was more meticulous than I expected.

“So, if we perform the same measurements in the West, we can prove that a monster flood is about to happen.” -Alfina

Alfina said, excitedly. But I shook my head.

“That won’t be easy. There’s a time lag between the fluctuation of magical energy and the monster flood.” -Ricardo

I remembered a graph from a science resource that showed the fluctuation of predator and prey populations. These two interact with a delay.

“Exactly. The precursor to a monster flood isn’t just the amount of magical energy in a single year but a pattern based on the peak of magical energy and its subsequent decrease, which takes several years. In the East, we have been measuring the amount of magical energy for over forty years. However, there are no records for the West, where no monster flood has occurred. Even if we start measuring the magical energy in the West now, we won’t be able to predict this year’s outbreak.” -Fuglsig

“That’s…” -Alfina

Alfina’s face fell into despair. After raising the possibility of a monster flood, it was disappointing not to be able to provide evidence. Of course, I had a plan in mind.

Given that this world also has four seasons, data should accumulate year by year. Purely in terms of data quality, even the glaciers in the western mountains wouldn’t be sufficient, regardless of how much life exists there. So, the only thing that comes to mind is…

Yes, around that village, there are trees with distinctive colors.

But there are countless problems. The deterioration of those records over time, and since it’s an indirect measurement, can its accuracy be guaranteed? Still, there’s a possibility.

“How much error does the measurement include?” -Ricardo

“About ten percent or so, why do you ask?” -Fuglsig

“What if the chief librarian, the creator himself, conducts the experiment?” -Ricardo

“Weren’t my knowledge and skills enough?” -Fuglsig

“Failure is part of being young.” -Ricardo

It’s a difficult phrase to use with classmates, but it’s no problem when speaking to an old man who has lived at least twice the cumulative age of my peers.

“Hmph, I’ve been establishing methods for nearly forty years. My successors just repeat the same measurements without any change. What’s so interesting about that? The royal palace cut off research funding, saying they didn’t need any more accuracy. But I’ve continued to improve it.” -Fuglsig

“Meaning?” -Ricardo

“I can judge with an order of magnitude more precision.” -Fuglsig

Fuglsig pulled out a piece of black paper from a drawer.

“Then I’ll go retrieve the past data. Once I return, I’d like to ask the chief librarian to measure the samples.” -Ricardo

“There truly is a way to know the past…?” -Fuglsig

“No guarantees. But if it works, we might be able to get records from the past few decades. Also, for comparison, we’ll need similar samples from the East—” -Ricardo

What’s needed for collection is a thin cylindrical metal. Ordinary trees near the royal capital will serve as the negative control. Trees from the east will be the positive control. I opened an encyclopedia of natural sciences. It depicted a tree as red as autumn leaves, but this tree is red regardless of the season.

Redleaf trees, found only in a limited area around the Rubel Wald and its vicinity, require magic to survive.

“Hmph, well, I’m considered an educator, after all. Indulging a student’s whims could be interesting… especially since it’s the princess’s request.” -Fuglsig

Saying so, Fuglsig curled his lips.

◇◇

After the lecture, I left the chief librarian’s office through the library side. Mia was still caught up talking about the calculation formulas with Fuglsig.

It couldn’t be helped. But for some reason, Alfina followed me.

“Ricardo-kun, you’re truly amazing.” -Alfina

The beautiful girl, shining even in the dim library, looked at me with admiration. I wish she wouldn’t expect too much. In theory, it should work, but it’s really walking a tightrope. Just thinking about the reaction if it fails makes my stomach hurt.

“You’re going to Leiria Village yourself, right?” -Alfina

“Yes, I want to see it with my own eyes. It’s a trading partner of Vinder, and I’m acquainted with the village chief.” -Ricardo

“Is that so…” -Alfina

Alfina stopped walking. Then, as if making up her mind, she lifted her face and looked straight into my eyes. I had a bad feeling about this. Whenever this classmate asserts her will, my safety tends to shake. The correlation is so clear, it doesn’t even need calculation.

“Please take me with you.” -Alfina

“Eh?” -Ricardo

“I can’t let you bear the burden alone.” -Alfina

“Your concern is appreciated, but it’s just part of my family’s business, so you needn’t worry.” -Ricardo

What an outrageous thing to say. What would she do if I reincarnated into another different world again?

“But… If it’s that village I saw in the prophecy, I can confirm it. If I see it in person, I might be able to recall more detailed images. It’s primary information, right? That’s important.” -Alfina

“That is…” -Ricardo

She hit a sore spot. The hypothesis’s major premise, the most important thing to confirm. And she was the only one who could do it.

“But, you said yourself that it would be difficult for you to travel far.” -Ricardo

“It won’t be easy, but I’ll ask my aunt.”  -Alfina

We had reached the exit of the library. Alfina looked at me with determined eyes, a clear indication of her will. Her gaze stopped me in my tracks.

Suddenly, the door opened. A black shadow entered the library. Reflexively, I stood in front of Alfina. The light from the reading room cast a silhouette. It was a woman with a ponytail, and I could see the reflection of light on something long she held in her hand.

“Why are you with the princess?!” -Claudia

She drew her weapon before even speaking. I think I heard a knock from behind earlier. Had someone told her we were in the library? If Mia was seen, then the excuse of coincidentally being in the library wouldn’t work.

“Claud. Ricardo-kun is just answering my request.” -Alfina

“What? Th-that… You…” -Claudia

Claudia turned bright red. What she imagined caused her drawn blade to tremble. The situation of an unmarried lady alone with a man in a secluded room, seen by her guard, could be problematic. The social status could absolve the guard of any wrongdoing if acted upon in frustration.

“Please calm down, Claudia-dono. Alfina-sama, that way of speaking might lead to misunderstandings.” -Ricardo

“Ah! Uh, that… Yes, Ricardo-kun is knowledgeable about the western lands because of his family’s business. He was giving me advice about the prophecy. You can ask Professor Fuglsig for confirmation.” -Alfina

Alfina’s words were fumbled, perhaps the only classmate less capable of deception than me. Yet, hearing her, Claudia pushed me aside.

“Princess, you mustn’t speak any more of the prophecy.” -Claudia

“Claud. But… Ricardo-kun, I…”  -Alfina

Too strong a reaction towards her master. The anxiety seemed stronger than the caution she had for me. Nevertheless, Alfina tried to approach me.

“Ricardo. Never speak of the princess’s concern about the prophecy to anyone.” -Claudia

“I promise. Alfina-sama, it was an honor to be with you this time.” -Ricardo

Pressed by Claudia’s gaze, I left the library. They didn’t come out, likely heading back to the chief librarian’s office before exiting to the corridor.

For some reason, I was biting my lip. I should be relieved the conversation ended ambiguously. My self-preservation gauge was already at zero, or perhaps even in the negatives.

After all, taking the princess to the village was too far-fetched. Alfina’s aunt is the Archduchess Berthold, a great noble. Surely she will make a sensible decision.