Akatsuki Translations

“Monster Floods do not occur in the west.” -Fuglsig

The old man, who had been attentively listening to Alfina’s earnest explanation, turned to face me with an expression that was anything but warm. The kindly elder stroking his long white beard seemed to have disappeared.

Three days after our hypothesis review meeting in the archive Mia, Alfina, and I were in the librarian’s room. Facing us sat the room’s owner, an elderly man, probably around seventy years old. Given his background as the fourth son of a baronial family, his rise to this position was extraordinary.

However, considering his achievements in devising methods to predict Monster Floods, it felt like a trivial post. I want to curse myself for sympathizing with him.

Over these three days, I had come to think of him as an interesting character, but it seemed he found the idea of a commoner boy beside a princess unamusing. Incidentally, there were two commoners here, but Mia was being offered tea and snacks.

When Alfina first introduced me as a friend, his attitude became rigid. Maybe he saw me as a bad influence on his cute granddaughter? I was just as surprised to be called a friend and wished for some leniency. But any further explanation from me might tag me as a manipulator or a villain in his eyes.

In fact, he probably already saw me that way.

There’s no need to glare at me. I don’t need your concern. I understand the world we live in are different. I have no desire or admiration for the world she inhabits. Sure, she’s a stunningly beautiful girl, who would be irresistible if not for her ‘princess’ status – a veritable landmine. Our current situation is just a product of coincidence.

In fact, I had been trying hard to keep a distance, yet somehow ended up in this situation.

While contemplating these unspoken excuses, I tried to turn my sullen face into a more serene one. It’s said that the Buddha will run out of patience if one touches his face three times, but in this world, a noble angered thrice by commoner a is likely to meet the genuine Buddha.

“Considering the circumstances, the highest probability is a Monster Flood. Therefore, we would greatly appreciate the guidance of the librarian…” -Ricardo

“Fanciful theories are a dime a dozen. If you think a disaster is coming, what do you reckon is the actual likelihood of it being a Monster Flood?” -Fuglsig

When I added my words, the old man, resting his chin on his hand on the table, spoke with evident annoyance.

“Let’s see, even a three out of ten chance would be optimistic.” -Ricardo

“Eh!?” -Alfina

“………” -Fuglsig

Alfina was the one surprised. Understandably, as the highest possibility being less than one-third seemed far too unreliable. But that’s how it was. I looked straight at Fuglsig. His choice of words earlier, despite his attitude, indicated that he understood our approach.

“Why bother examining such a tentative hypothesis?” -Fuglsig

“As I mentioned earlier, it’s still the most likely possibility. Also, a Monster Flood is preventable, meaning its underlying mechanisms are somewhat understood. In other words, this hypothesis is testable.” -Ricardo

“To some extent, yes.” -Fuglsig

“In other words, with your wisdom, we could make this hypothesis either 100% or 0%. If we find out a Monster Flood will occur, then good. If not, we can move on to the next hypothesis.” -Ricardo

I answered without averting my gaze.

“So, you came here for that purpose. I see, I see…”  -Fuglsig

Fuglsig finally lifted his chin, one eye narrowed with a sly smile.

“I heard from the princess that she wanted to borrow my wisdom. But you, you don’t need my wisdom or judgment. Just hand over the knowledge. That’s what you’re really saying, isn’t it?” -Fuglsig

“That’s not true. Ricardo-kun is…” -Alfina

“You’re right. That’s how you utilize an expert.” -Ricardo

“Ricardo-kun!? But, you see…” -Alfina

Alfina looked shocked. Fuglsig glared at me and then silently stood up. Alfina started to rise, as if to stop him.

“The mountain ranges, the magic veins, and the surrounding Rubel Wald, are monster territories. Normally, monsters do not venture out from there. A Monster Flood is when monsters suddenly swarm and attack the plains, the human domains. Two hundred years ago, a major Monster Flood from the eastern Rubel Wald led to the downfall of the old dynasty, as you must have learned in history.” -Fuglsig

The old scholar stopped in front of a stone slate mounted on the wall and began lecturing. Next to him was a map of the entire kingdom, with many marks on the eastern mountain range.

“Since then, no event of that scale has occurred, but even now, in the east, there are small Monster Floods every six years and medium-sized ones every decade. And the cause is…” -Fuglsig

Fuglsig pointed to the eastern mountain range.

“It’s the fluctuation of the magic veins. Chaotic magical energy, or miasma, which makes up half of the monsters’ energy, springs from deep within the earth. Thus, the structure of the mountain range can be seen as the flow of magical power. As you can see, the eastern mountain range is complexly intertwined.” -Fuglsig

There were several red lines on the eastern mountain range on the map, with circles where they intersected. I see, so I should think of the mountains as rivers of magical power.

“As a result, there are times when the flow of magical power is calm, canceling each other out, and times when it becomes turbulent, overlapping. This affects the ecosystem of the monsters that depend on magical power. Simply put, when the magical power increases, so do the monsters. And when it decreases, the monsters starve. That’s what leads to a Monster Flood.” -Fuglsig

Ordinary creatures, including humans, are based on the energy of sunlight. But monsters also incorporate magical energy that springs from the earth. On Earth, there are ecosystems that depend not on sunlight, but on energy from hydrothermal vents in the deep sea.

“On the other hand, the western mountain range is simple. It doesn’t undergo major fluctuations in magical power like the East. This is what you wanted to know, right?” -Fuglsig

Now what? Fuglsig seemed to ask with his eyes. Indeed, the western mountain range, though comparable in size to the east, extends straight from south to north. This explanation makes sense. If the disaster is coming from the west, the likelihood of it being a Monster Flood is not high.

If I apply the same standards that led me to dismiss the possibilities of floods and volcanic eruptions, I should make the same judgment.

Alfina turned to me with a troubled expression. If the probability is corrected, the hypothesis should be withdrawn. There’s no lie in that statement. But…

“May I use the slate? Mia, please explain that data.” -Ricardo

Mia and I hadn’t been just playing around for the past three days. Mia stood in front of the slate, taking Fuglsig’s place.

“The weather in the kingdom is stable, and the temperature is nearly the same in the east and west. The only significant difference is in the amount of rainfall, which correlates well with the harvest. The correlation coefficient is 0.86.” -Mia

Mia began her explanation. Fuglsig twisted his head, wondering what was starting. Alfina, too, looked confused by this unexpected topic.

“What is a correlation coefficient?” -Fuglsig

“It’s a numerical representation of the strength of the relationship between two quantities. For example, the relationship between the harvest and the sales of luxury goods. It’s represented by this simple calculation[1].” -Mia

Mia showed a formula on the slate.

“An interesting method of calculation. It makes sense, but can we trust the harvest data? No matter how beautifully calculated, wrong data will only amplify the error.” -Fuglsig

Harvest data is closely tied to taxation, meaning nobles might tamper with it. Fuglsig’s statement is quite risky, as it alludes to the well-known yet unspoken fact of rampant tax evasion. Mia looked at me, seeking confirmation to proceed. I nodded.

“We can’t trust the data from noble territories. However, directly managed royal lands, partly overseen by officials to counterbalance noble influence, can be somewhat reliable. This is evident from the variance in the harvest data.” -Mia

Mia attached a paper to the slate. The harvest data from noble and royal lands were shown as dots. The noble lands’ harvest data was not normally distributed[2], as if skewed by some factor, perhaps convenience.

“The variance in the harvest data from noble lands is unnatural. On the other hand, the royal lands’ data is closer to natural. This is clearly shown by this formula. For this analysis, we have used data from the royal lands.” -Mia

This data is a bombshell. It could lead to more efficient investigations of noble tax evasion. But for now, gaining the old man’s interest takes precedence. Trusting my intuition that he can engage in a conversation driven by numbers, I proceed.

“Interesting. Expressing the deviation from the average by multiplying, then… Wait, this is a formula for the concept of ‘expected coincidence’…” -Fuglsig

As expected, Fuglsig was completely absorbed in the calculation.

“Returning to the main point. When we separate the data between east and west, the western end has a correlation coefficient of 0.9, almost perfectly aligning rainfall and harvest. However, in the east, it drops to 0.7. The reason is the existence of years that don’t match, ‘abundant harvest’ years. Recently, these were in the years 324, 314, and 309 of the kingdom’s calendar. In these years, the harvest was ‘higher’ than predicted from the rainfall.” -Mia

Fuglsig stroked his beard.

“Years when Monster Floods occurred in the east?” -Fuglsig

“According to Alfina-sama’s prophecy, this year the West will have a bountiful harvest. Meanwhile, the east will not. Thus, not only the prophecy of disaster but also the prophecy of a bountiful harvest is peculiar.” -Mia

Mia’s words surprised both of them. We too were surprised when we researched it. There seems to be a connection between Monster Floods and bountiful harvests. While emphasizing the importance of primary information, this was a blind spot for us.

Now it’s my turn. I stood up and pointed to the map.

TL Note(s)

[1] To add a bit to the explanation, the value of a correlation coefficient can range from -1 to 1, with -1 indicating that the relationship is perfectly negative, and a 1 representing a perfect positive correlation. Therefore, a correlation of 0.86 could probably be said to be fairly high in this case.

[2] A.K.A. Gaussian Distribution. A normal probability distribution shows that data close to the mean is more frequent than data far from the mean (68.2% of the data should be within +/- one standard deviations according to the empirical rule).