Chapter 5: Part 2 – A Fantastical Hypothesis

8 minutes

“The next step… Yes, now that the location has been identified, we need to think about evacuation…” -Alfina

“No, that’s not it.”  -Mia

“It’s still insufficient to persuade the kingdom.” -Ricardo

Since the prophecy itself is not being taken seriously, there is a high likelihood that no measures will be taken, even if the affected area is somewhat limited. First of all, the visions seen by Alfina are limited. There’s no guarantee that the damage will be confined only to Leiria.

“It’s identifying the type of disaster.” -Ricardo

“B-but, we can’t actually see the disaster itself in the prophecy.” -Alfina

“We’ve obtained information about the region where a new disaster will occur. This means we can narrow down the possible disasters based on the surrounding geography. We can hypothesize what kind of disaster might occur.” -Ricardo

“A hypothesis…?” -Alfina

Alfina looks puzzled. Even I feel a strong sense of discomfort in theorizing about a prophecy.

“First, we’ll list the possible disasters. The fact that the villagers are fleeing gives us a big clue. What we can infer from this is…” -Ricardo

“They’re abandoning their fertile fields to flee, so it must be something serious. They would have forewarning if it were a cold spell or drought.” -Mia

“Right, it’s a sudden event. At least, it was for the villagers.” -Ricardo

In this case, Mia’s instincts are far more reliable. She lived there until she was ten.

“Both natural and man-made disasters are possible……. But first, we’ll consider human factors.” -Ricardo

At my words, Mia nods, and Alfina’s face clouds over. To the west, or more precisely, the northwest, lies the border with the Empire. The Empire, with much of its land being mountainous, has always been in search of food. There have been major conflicts in the past. The current long peace is thanks to the balance between the internal problems of the Empire and the benefits of mutual trade.

“Isn’t one of the reasons Alfina-sama was silenced ‘to avoid provoking the Empire’?” -Ricardo

“…That’s right.” -Alfina

I believe that no country is purely good or evil, and that there is no country which doesn’t need to be wary of its neighbors. The Empire should, of course, be wary of us, and they must be. And that’s why it’s natural to avoid unnecessary provocation. That in itself is not wrong.

If the kingdom’s unnecessary alertness toward the West becomes exaggerated, it could elevate the Empire’s level of alertness towards the kingdom. This in turn raises the kingdom’s guard. Eventually, rumors might start spreading independently, claiming that “the aforementioned prophecy is about an invasion by the Empire.” Such rumors could shatter fifty years of peace in an instant.

However, fearing this and not considering the possibility of an invasion by the Empire are entirely different things. So, we have to consider it.

“But, the likelihood seems low.” -Ricardo

I pointed at the map. The Empire borders the northwest of the kingdom. And the major routes for an army to march are towards the east, leading to the capital. Purely in terms of food resources, the North would be a more likely target than the South. It’s hard to imagine the Empire’s army reaching Leiria from the border without any warning. And then…

“Let’s confirm the vision. Were the houses collapsed? Did you see smoke on the horizon?” -Ricardo

“No, I didn’t see images like that. It was a clear day, which made the sight of people fleeing all the more…” -Alfina

Every time I asked a question, it might bring back those terrible images. But it’s crucial information. If it were a war, there would be smoke. If it’s an invasion, villages would be burned, either by the enemy or to deny them food.

“The next possibility is a large-scale rebellion.” -Ricardo

At my words, Alfina’s face grew even paler. Given her family background, that makes sense, but we can’t avoid considering it. This region is still disliked by the capital because of a rebellion twenty years ago. The tax rates are harsh. But a rebellion that might result in the massacre of an entire village is extreme. Neither Leiria nor its surroundings are that desperate. Especially not in a year of good harvest.

“This also seems unlikely.” -Ricardo

Mia nodded at my explanation. She knows the most about rural areas. Alfina’s face relaxed.

“Next is a natural disaster. Earthquake, flood, volcanic eruption…” -Ricardo

There are no major rivers near that village, and there’s no record of any mountains erupting. Of course, an eruption could happen, but even in modern Japan, predicting volcanic eruptions with high accuracy was difficult. The same goes for earthquakes. Pointing at the map, I crossed off each possibility one by one.

“A pandemic also seems unlikely…” -Ricardo

In the population density of this era, it’s hard to imagine abandoning a village due to an epidemic. Would people run from a disease outbreak? I stared intently at the map. Mia nodded at my words. Alfina didn’t object.

“So the next possibility is…, what’s next…” -Ricardo

“Ricardo-kun?”  -Alfina

“Senpai?” -Mia

The two girls’ gazes bore into me as I fell silent. I’ve considered most of the possibilities. What other natural disasters could there be? Tsunami? We’re not near the sea. A meteorite? It doesn’t match the vision, and it’s an unlikely worry. Wait, what if there’s some kind of meteorite summoning magic…

A demon lord summoned from another world… Or a demon lord or something inside of me that suddenly awakens isn’t likely. In any case, I’d want that kind of cheat power if it existed. It’s not even worth considering. If a demon lord appears, I’d only hope a hero comes along too. And no, I’m definitely not the hero.

…No good, I’m getting carried away with fantasy. I shook my head. But something was nagging at me.

“Wait, this is a fantasy world…” -Ricardo

Whether it’s human-caused or a natural disaster, my ideas are always Earth-based.

But what I need to consider now are the disasters that could happen in this world. While Alfina and Mia, who don’t understand the term “fantasy,” looked puzzled, my finger flipped through the pages. Near the end of the encyclopedia, where creatures not found on Earth are listed, my finger stopped.

My other hand reached for the map. My index finger moved straight sideways from Leiria village. Brown mountains and a red forest were marked. Usually, these are territories of monsters that don’t interact with humans. But there’s an exception. A phenomenon where a large number of monsters overflow from Rubel Wald.

“Monster Flood…” -Ricardo

I uttered these words, which felt unreal to me, as if I were talking about an event in a game from my original world.

“A Monster Flood, huh? If it’s a swarm of monsters, at least they wouldn’t be actively setting fires. And there’s no need for the people to burn their own food out of fear. But…” -Mia

“There are no records of a Monster Flood occurring in the West.” -Alfina

Mia and Alfina said this. Indeed, even I had considered possible disasters for the Lenge Project. In terms of likelihood, a Monster Flood should be dismissed just like a volcanic eruption or flood.

“But then why? Why don’t Monster Floods occur in the West?” -Ricardo

I opened the map representing the entire kingdom. Both the east and west of the kingdom have mountain ranges. Rubel Wald, which is adjacent to these mountains, indicate areas influenced by magical power from the mountains, habitats for monsters. The geography of the east and west is symmetrical, and in the east, a Monster Flood occurs every few years.

I flipped through the pages with monsters listed. The descriptions were already sparse, and information on the monster ecosystem, which humans rarely enter, was scarce. I couldn’t just type “What causes a Monster Flood?” into a search bar and get an answer.

“There’s too little information to consider. Another book maybe…” -Ricardo

“Senpai. Responding to a Monster Flood is the duty of the knight orders” -Mia

“Military information, huh…” -Ricardo

Information is already valuable enough. To obtain certain information, it feels like searching for a person who “knows someone” who “knows someone” who “knows.” So, should I look for such a person?

Aligning with a prophecy that could destabilize the kingdom, I remain neutral, but objectively speaking, attempting to access military information would be a death sentence.

I held my head in frustration. Mia shook her head as well. However,

“Um, if it’s knowledge about a Monster Flood, there’s someone who knows more than anyone else…” -Alfina

Alfina spoke up. Her finger pointed not towards the reading room but to a different door, curiously leading to the library.

“The librarian is a retired court magician.” -Mia

Mia said this. So that was their background. I had never met them, so I hadn’t even thought about it.


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